Match Analysis: Newcastle United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: St. James' Park
Game Overview
Newcastle United hosts Wolverhampton Wanderers in an EPL matchup where Newcastle enters as a strong favorite given their home advantage, stronger recent form, and statistical edge in simulations.
Key Factors to Consider
- Newcastle has a strong recent form at home (15-3-2 SU in last 20 as favorite) and a higher chance to win based on simulations (~64%). Wolves have struggled on the road with less offensive output.
- Historically, Newcastle has dominated Wolves in recent EPL matchups with more wins and better goal differences, supporting Newcastle's favor.
- No significant injury reports affecting Newcastle's key starters; Wolves have some minor absences but nothing that drastically lowers their starting XI quality.
- Playing at St. James' Park with home crowd support strongly benefits Newcastle. No severe weather or other external disruptions expected.
- Newcastle motivated to capitalize early in the EPL season to remain in top positions; Wolves have less to play for and lower morale due to recent results.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Newcastle United: -236, Wolverhampton Wanderers: 580, Draw: 350 | Newcastle United | β β β β β 74% |
Spread | Newcastle United -1.5: 117, Wolverhampton Wanderers +1.5: -156 | Newcastle United -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -136, Under 2.5: 103 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Newcastle United -9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Newcastle United to win the match.
Predicted Score: 3-1