Match Analysis: Cagliari vs Parma – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Sardegna Arena
Game Overview
Cagliari hosts Parma in a Serie A matchup featuring two teams with contrasting recent form and motivations. Cagliari shows stronger historical performance and home advantage, while Parma seeks to upset with improving form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cagliari holds a strong 5-0-2 record in the last 7 meetings against Parma and has been defensively solid, though recent league form shows some inconsistency. Parma has struggled away but has shown signs of resilience and potential to snatch points as underdogs.
- In the last seven encounters, Cagliari won 5, drew 2, and Parma has yet to win, indicating a dominance by Cagliari particularly at home.
- No major injuries reported for either side affecting key starters; squads are mostly intact for this fixture.
- The game takes place at Sardegna Arena, giving Cagliari home-field advantage. Weather and pitch conditions are expected to be normal, posing no negative impact.
- Cagliari aims to assert dominance early in the season to avoid relegation battles, while Parma looks for an upset to gain momentum after their recent performances.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cagliari: +116, Parma: +260, Draw: +220 | Cagliari | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Cagliari -0.25: -118, Parma +25: -102 | Cagliari -0.25 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -102, Under 2.25: -118 | Over 2.25 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cagliari 19% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.25 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Cagliari at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cagliari to win on moneyline, with a slight handicap spread, and over 2.25 goals expected
Predicted Score: 2-1