Match Analysis: Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-11
- Time: 11:16 PM UTC
- Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Game Overview
The Cleveland Guardians host the Kansas City Royals in the 4th game of their series, with the Royals leading 2-1. The Guardians, favored at home, start Gavin Williams against Royals' Stephen Kolek. The matchup features teams with similar records near .500, both displaying balanced offensive and pitching stats.
Key Factors to Consider
- Guardians have a slightly better recent record at home and perform well as favorites (-134 moneyline, 16-7 when favored at similar lines). Their pitching staff holds a 3.87 ERA with Williams at 3.17 ERA. Royals batters like Bobby Witt Jr. and Pasquantino provide solid offensive output but their pitching ERA is slightly better (3.67).
- In this series, the Royals currently lead 2-1, but overall Cleveland shows a stronger margin historically. Stats show Guardians with a .225 team batting average and solid OPS, while Royals are comparable at .244 BA.
- No reported key injuries directly impacting starting pitching or core lineup for either team. Both lineups appear healthy and at full strength.
- Playing at Progressive Field gives Guardians a home-field advantage. Weather and other external elements are expected to be neutral.
- Guardians, on the cusp of playoff contention, are motivated to defend home turf and regain lead in series. Royals look to close out series strongly, adding competitive edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -134 | Guardians | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | Guardians -1.5 @ 150 | Royals +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 8 runs -104 / Under 8 runs -118 | Under 8 runs | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cleveland Guardians 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cleveland Guardians moneyline
Predicted Score: Guardians 4, Royals 2