Match Analysis: Parma vs Bologna – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Ennio Tardini, Parma, Italy
Game Overview
Parma (15th in Serie A) hosts Bologna (5th) in a Serie A round 10 fixture. Bologna is currently in better form, unbeaten in their last 7 matches and in contention for a UEFA Europa League spot, while Parma struggles near the lower half of the table. Bologna has a stronger recent scoring record and defensive record is similar between teams.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bologna averages 1.63 goals scored per match and concedes 0.88, showing better offensive capability and stability, with 3 clean sheets recently. Parma struggles offensively, scoring 0.38 goals per match with 6 failures to score in recent meetings. Bologna is unbeaten in last 7 games, Parma has longer winless runs.
- In 18 meetings, Bologna won 5, Parma 4, and 9 matches ended in draws. Recent encounters have been tight with several draws (including 0-0 in last meeting). Bologna has a slight edge historically, also winning more recently with Parma failing to win since 2020 in 4 head-to-head games.
- Parma will be without Mandela Keita, Emanuele Valeri, Jacob Ondrejka, Gaetano Oristanio, and Matija Frigan due to injury. Bologna has Ciro Immobile out injured. Parma missing key offensive players while Bologna misses a major forward but has better depth.
- Playing at home gives Parma some advantage, but their poor form at home dampens this. Bologna's motivation to secure a high table finish and European competition spot adds pressure to perform. Weather or pitch conditions unknown but no reported issues.
- Bologna, vying for UEFA Europa League places, are motivated to maintain good form. Parma is fighting to climb away from relegation danger, adding extra pressure but their inconsistency undermines momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bologna: 108, Parma: 315, Draw: 200 | Bologna Win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Bologna -0.5: 108, Parma +50: -128 | Bologna -0.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2: -122, Under 2: 102 | Under 2 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bologna 14% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 21% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bologna is favored to win due to superior form, attacking strength, and depth despite Parma's home advantage and motivation to avoid relegation.
Predicted Score: Bologna 2 – 0 Parma