Match Analysis: Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-11
- Time: 1:41 AM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington
Game Overview
The Seattle Mariners host the St. Louis Cardinals in a crucial late-season MLB matchup. The Mariners currently hold a 77-68 record with strong home performance and are slight favorites, while the Cardinals (72-74) aim to spoil the Mariners' momentum in this pivotal series finale.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Mariners enter on a 4-game winning streak, winning the first two games of this series. Seattle boasts a strong home record (43-27) and has recently favored games going over total runs. The Cardinals have struggled on the road compared to home, with an overall middling season record.
- The Mariners currently lead this series 2-0, having defeated the Cardinals 5-3 most recently. Historically, the teams have split fairly evenly but the Mariners' recent dominance and home advantage tilt the H2H edge slightly in their favor.
- No major injuries reported impacting either team significantly for this matchup. Both teams appear near full strength.
- T-Mobile Park's pitcher-friendly conditions and Mariners' bullpen depth serve as advantages. Weather conditions appear stable, minimizing external disruption.
- Mariners have motivation to solidify playoff positioning in the AL West and continue winning streak, while Cardinals face elimination pressure trying to improve standings, likely increasing their effort but hampered by inconsistency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -225 (Seattle), +188 (St. Louis) | Seattle Mariners | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | -104 (Seattle -1.5), -115 (St. Louis +1.5) | Seattle Mariners -1.5 | β β β β β 71% |
Over/under | -102 (Over 7.5), -120 (Under 7.5) | Over 7.5 runs | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Seattle Mariners -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 7.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 7.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Seattle Mariners to win moneyline and cover the -1.5 run line; game to go over 7.5 total runs.
Predicted Score: Seattle Mariners 6 – 3 St. Louis Cardinals