Match Analysis: Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-09
- Time: 10:46 PM UTC
- Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Game Overview
The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets in a pivotal NL East matchup. The Phillies lead the division and show strong home form while the Mets struggle on the road, aiming to close the gap in the playoff chase. Key pitching matchups are Ranger SuΓ‘rez (PHI) vs Sean Manaea (NYM). Both teams feature elite power hitters, making this an intense contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Phillies have a superior 84-60 record and are 61-30 when favored by -130 or more. Mets are 76-68 overall and have lost three consecutive games entering this match. Phillies demonstrate especially strong home performance.
- In 2025, Mets hold a 7-3 edge in direct matchups, but recent Phillies wins and home advantage narrow that gap. Phillies won earlier games in this series, giving them momentum.
- Phillies' ace Zack Wheeler is out for the season but the rotation behind him, including SuΓ‘rez, is performing solidly. Mets do not report any key injuries here.
- Game at Citizens Bank Park favors the Phillies due to their home success and enthusiastic crowd. Weather and other external disruptions are not noted.
- Phillies aim to protect their division lead with playoff implications at stake, showing strong incentive. Mets are chasing a Wild Card spot and cannot afford more losses, creating high urgency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -130, away: +110 | Philadelphia Phillies | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | home: +146, away: -178 | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | over: -106, under: -114 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Philadelphia Phillies to win moneyline, Phillies to cover -1.5 spread, Under 8.5 runs total
Predicted Score: Phillies 5, Mets 3