Match Analysis: Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-09
- Time: 10:41 PM UTC
- Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Game Overview
The Cleveland Guardians host the Kansas City Royals in a late regular season MLB matchup with both teams having similar records close to the playoff cutoff. The Guardians are slightly favored at home with stronger recent form and more consistent pitching matchups.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cleveland Guardians have won 4 of their last 5 games and are 5-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in the last 6 home games. Kansas City Royals are 3-2 in last 5 games but 1-7 ATS in their last 8 overall and 2-6 ATS on the road.
- Recent seasonal head-to-head shows a slight edge for Cleveland with stronger performance against right-handed pitchers, and a better record at home overall. Kansas City struggles ATS in matchups versus Cleveland.
- No critical injuries reported for either team that significantly affect starting lineup or bullpen strength; both sides expected to field their typical starters with Noah Cameron pitching for the Royals and Joey Cantillo for the Guardians.
- Game scheduled at Progressive Field, a neutral outdoor stadium with no extreme weather conditions expected. Momentum favors Guardians due to home venue comfort and recent scoreline trends.
- Both teams are near playoff positioning; Royals face more pressure due to recent losses and bad pitching performance, while Guardians aim to maintain their edge and secure postseason seeding.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -126 for Guardians, +108 for Royals | Guardians | β β β β β 76% |
Spread | Guardians -1.5 at +162, Royals +1.5 at -196 | Royals +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 at -112, Under 7.5 at -108 | Under 7.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cleveland Guardians 8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Cleveland Guardians at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cleveland Guardians Moneyline
Predicted Score: Guardians 4, Royals 2