Match Analysis: Burnley vs Arsenal – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: Turf Moor, Burnley
Game Overview
Burnley host Arsenal in a Premier League clash with Arsenal leading the league and showing strong form, having won their last four matches and conceding just one goal in this run. Burnley are in the relegation fight, positioned 16th and fighting to improve their standing.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arsenal have been dominant recently with four consecutive wins, empowered by key players like Bukayo Saka and Leandro Trossard. Burnley have demonstrated resilience, including a recent win against bottom-placed Wolverhampton, but their form is inconsistent with only three wins so far.
- Recent head-to-head results strongly favor Arsenal, including wins by 5-0 (Feb 2024) and 3-1 (Nov 2023). The teams last met with Arsenal winning comfortably, and the longer-term trend shows Arsenal typically outperform Burnley.
- Arsenal face significant injury concerns with Gabriel Jesus, Kai Havertz, and Martin Odegaard sidelined, while William Saliba and Declan Rice are doubtful. Burnley have fewer injury reports, potentially giving them some stability.
- Arsenal are motivated by their Premier League title challenge and aim to maintain momentum. Burnley have survival motivation but face pressure as underdogs. The match is at Turf Moor, giving Burnley home crowd support, though it may be insufficient against Arsenal's quality.
- Arsenal seek to consolidate their top position and continue their unbeaten run, while Burnley are desperate for points to avoid relegation, offering a high-stakes motivation contrast.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arsenal: -360, Burnley: 910, Draw: 430 | Arsenal win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Arsenal -1.5: -120, Burnley +1.5: -111 | Arsenal -1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -138, Under 2.5: 104 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arsenal -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arsenal are expected to win comfortably given their superior form, quality, and recent dominance in direct encounters, despite injury setbacks. Burnley's recent resilience may curb the margin but not prevent defeat.
Predicted Score: Burnley 0 – 3 Arsenal