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Anthony Guarascio vs. Steven Asplund Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Anthony Guarascio vs Steven Asplund - Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-10
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

Heavyweight MMA bout between undefeated Anthony Guarascio (3-0) and highly experienced Steven Asplund (5-1) on Dana White's Contender Series, featuring a contrast in age, reach, and fighting styles.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Guarascio is undefeated with a perfect 3-0 record, showing heavy striking power with 2 KO/TKO wins and a submission, while Asplund has more fights (5-1) with a majority of wins by KO/TKO (4), but one loss and less finishing diversity.
  • This is their first recorded head-to-head matchup with no prior encounters.
  • No reported significant injuries for either fighter; Asplund took the fight on short notice but appears healthy and motivated.
  • Fight held at UFC Apex with no travel disadvantage; Asplund’s short-notice call might affect conditioning but boosts his motivation.
  • Asplund expressed high motivation, calling this the opportunity he’s always wanted, which could boost performance; Guarascio seeks to maintain undefeated status and impress on Contender Series.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -175, away: 150 Anthony Guarascio ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Guarascio -1.5: +150, Asplund +1.5: -180 Guarascio -1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under over 1.5: +177, under 1.5: -205 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Anthony Guarascio 1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 -11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Anthony Guarascio at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Anthony Guarascio to win by moneyline, with under 1.5 rounds expectable due to Guarascio’s finishing tendency.

Predicted Score: Anthony Guarascio wins by KO/TKO in round 1 or early round 2

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Anthony Guarascio vs. Steven Asplund Prediction

Match Analysis: Anthony Guarascio vs Steven Asplund – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-09-10 Time: 12:00 AM UTC Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV Game Overview Heavyweight MMA bout between undefeated Anthony Guarascio (3-0) and highly experienced Steven Asplund (5-1) on Dana White's Contender Series, featuring a contrast in age, reach, and fighting styles. Key Factors […]

Anthony Guarascio MMA/Boxing September 10, 2025 Steven Asplund

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Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 9:45 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

Middleweight clash between Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho, both top-ranked UFC contenders vying for a title shot against Khamzat Chimaev. Imavov is a polished striker with a solid recent winning streak including a notable TKO over Israel Adesanya, while Borralho is an undefeated, well-rounded grappler with significant improvements in striking.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Imavov enters on a four-fight winning streak (16-4-0), showing striking precision (4.45 significant strikes/min at 55% accuracy) and respectable defense (3.26 allowed/min, 58% strike defense). Borralho is undefeated in UFC (17-1-0), with strong grappling and recently improved striking (3.61 significant strikes/min at 60% accuracy), and better defensive numbers (2.34 allowed/min, 62% strike defense).
  • No previous head-to-head bouts between Imavov and Borralho, making this a critical test of styles—Imavov's striking versus Borralho's evolving striking and elite grappling.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout, indicating both are likely at peak condition.
  • Fight takes place in Paris, potentially giving Imavov a slight edge due to proximity and comfort. Both fighters motivated by prospect of title shot against Khamzat Chimaev.
  • Both fighters highly motivated, although Borralho’s undefeated UFC record and recent enhancements in striking may fuel confidence, while Imavov looks to continue momentum from recent high-profile wins.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: +105, away: -125 Nassourdine Imavov ★★★☆☆ 66%
Spread home: -205 (Imavov +5.5), away: 150 (Borralho -5.5) Imavov +5.5 ★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under over: -195 (4.5 rounds), under: 150 (4.5 rounds) Under 4.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Caio Borralho 3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 4.5 55%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 4.5 at 55% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nassourdine Imavov to win by decision

Predicted Score: Imavov wins by unanimous decision after 5 rounds


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Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 9:15 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Fight Night, Paris

Game Overview

Benoit Saint-Denis faces Mauricio Ruffy in a UFC Fight Night bout in Paris. While Ruffy enters as the betting favorite, analysts suggest Saint-Denis is on a higher fighting level, especially in grappling and overall skill set.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Saint-Denis has demonstrated superior recent performance with well-rounded skills and strong grappling, while Ruffy’s grappling remains relatively untested against high-level competition.
  • No direct head-to-head matches between them previously; stylistic matchup favors Saint-Denis’ grappling advantage.
  • No significant injury concerns reported for either fighter prior to the bout.
  • Fight taking place in Paris could provide a slight home crowd advantage for Saint-Denis; no travel or external distractions noted.
  • Both fighters motivated, but Saint-Denis appears more driven to prove himself against a favored opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline 145 Benoit Saint-Denis ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread 3.5 100 Benoit Saint-Denis +3.5 ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under 1.5 -160/124 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Benoit Saint-Denis 42%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 46%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 46% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Benoit Saint-Denis to win by decision

Predicted Score: Saint-Denis wins by decision after 3 rounds


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Modestas Bukauskas vs. Paul Craig Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 8:45 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

A light heavyweight showdown at UFC Paris between Modestas Bukauskas, known for his striking power and recent strong form, and Paul Craig, a veteran grappler with a mixed recent record. Bukauskas is heavily favored on the moneyline reflecting his momentum and striking superiority.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Modestas Bukauskas arrives with 4 wins in his last 5 fights, landing 3.26 significant strikes per minute with a 42% accuracy, while absorbing 4.07 strikes per minute. Paul Craig is on a skid with 3 losses in last 4, landing 2.54 strikes per minute at 45% accuracy and absorbing fewer shots (3.00 per min) but with lower defensive efficiency (43%).
  • No prior head-to-head matchups recorded between Bukauskas and Craig.
  • No publicly reported injuries to either fighter leading into the bout.
  • Bukauskas is favored by the market with odds reflecting increased confidence from bettors. The fight takes place in Europe which is neutral ground for both – Bukauskas (Lithuanian origin) and Craig (UK).
  • Bukauskas is on an upswing and aims to solidify his status in the light heavyweight division, while Craig needs a win to halt his losing streak and remain relevant, adding desperation but also pressure.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -355, away: +280 Modestas Bukauskas ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread home: -3.5 -230, away: +3.5 165 Modestas Bukauskas -3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under over: 1.5 -140, under: 1.5 110 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Modestas Bukauskas -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 37%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Modestas Bukauskas wins by KO/TKO

Predicted Score: Modestas Bukauskas wins by TKO in Round 2


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Bolaji Oki vs. Mason Jones Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Bolaji Oki vs Mason Jones – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 8:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

The lightweight MMA bout pits Bolaji Oki (10-2) against Mason Jones (16-2-0, 1 NC) at UFC Paris. Both fighters are orthodox, similar height and weight, with Jones slightly longer reach. Oki is known for a higher volume and accuracy of significant strikes, while Jones has a solid finishing record and recent strong form.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Bolaji Oki lands 7.05 significant strikes/min at 45% accuracy but absorbs 4.76 strikes/min with 62% defense. Mason Jones lands fewer strikes at 5.56/min with 41% accuracy and defends only 48%. Jones shows better recent finishing ability and more UFC experience overall.
  • No known previous fight between Bolaji Oki and Mason Jones.
  • No current reported injuries for either fighter leading into the September 6 bout.
  • The fight is held at UFC Paris, potentially favoring both evenly with no strong home advantage. Both fighters appear motivated to advance their UFC standings.
  • Jones is in prime career form after returning from Cage Warriors with multiple finishes and a dominant UFC win. Oki, though a rising talent, has close UFC decision wins and a first round submission loss versus a higher-level opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bolaji Oki: +114, Mason Jones: -135 Mason Jones ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Bolaji Oki +3.5: -180, Mason Jones -3.5: +130 Mason Jones -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5: -175, Under 2.5: +135 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Mason Jones -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 34%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mason Jones to win by decision

Predicted Score: Mason Jones wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds


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Rhys McKee vs. Axel Sola Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Rhys McKee vs Axel Sola – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 7:45 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

Welterweight bout between undefeated UFC newcomer Axel Sola and UFC veteran Rhys McKee, who has struggled in the UFC with a 1-4 record. Sola is favored due to his unbeaten MMA record (10-0-1) and momentum entering the UFC, while McKee shows solid striking volume but poor defense and inconsistent UFC results.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Sola boasts a perfect MMA record without any losses, suggesting strong form and confidence. McKee has shown striking volume (5.16 significant strikes/min with 44% accuracy) but also absorbs a high number of strikes (7.92/min) with below-average defense (46%), and has only one UFC victory in five bouts.
  • No prior head-to-head matchups exist between McKee and Sola, so historical data is unavailable. This UFC debut gives Sola the mental edge as a fresh, undefeated competitor versus the experienced but struggling McKee.
  • No reported current injuries for either fighter impacting performance or preparation.
  • Fight is in Sola’s UFC debut, a strong motivating factor. The bout takes place in Paris, which is neutral ground for both fighters, limiting home advantage effect.
  • Sola’s motivation is high to make a strong first impression and maintain his unbeaten streak, while McKee is likely motivated to rebound from his UFC struggles but has shown inconsistency recently.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: +114, away: -135 away ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread home +3.5: -180, away -3.5: +130 away -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under over 2.5: -166, under 2.5: +130 under 2.5 ★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Axel Sola 39%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 38%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Axel Sola at 39% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Axel Sola to win by decision

Predicted Score: Axel Sola wins by decision – UFC standard scoring


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Patricio Pitbull vs. Losene Keita Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Patricio Pitbull vs Losene Keita – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 7:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris

Game Overview

A featherweight clash between Patricio Pitbull, a highly decorated veteran at age 38, and Losene Keita, a 27-year-old European prospect making his UFC debut. The fight is pivotal for both careers, with Keita favored due to youth, recent momentum, and striking power.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Losene Keita has strong recent form as a rising prospect with a 62.5% finish rate and explosive striking. Patricio Pitbull remains a veteran with grappling control skills but shows some decline due to age.
  • No previous head-to-head matchups between these fighters; styles contrast Keita’s striking speed versus Pitbull’s wrestling/control.
  • No reported injuries for either competitor leading into the bout.
  • The fight takes place in Paris, somewhat neutral ground but potentially with slight crowd support for European Keita; no significant external pressures reported.
  • Keita motivated by UFC debut and career trajectory; Pitbull motivated by legacy and proving viability against younger competition.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Losene Keita: -225, Patricio Pitbull: +185 Losene Keita ★★★★☆ 74%
Spread Losene Keita -3.5: +100, Patricio Pitbull +3.5: -135 Losene Keita -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 2.5: -188, Under 2.5: +145 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Losene Keita -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 47%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 47% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Losene Keita to win by knockout or technical knockout

Predicted Score: Losene Keita wins by TKO in Round 2


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William Gomis vs. Robert Ruchala Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: William Gomis vs Robert Ruchala – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 6:45 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

Featherweight UFC Fight Night prelim bout between William 'Jaguar' Gomis and Robert Ruchala, two skilled fighters with strong records facing off for career momentum.

Key Factors to Consider

  • William Gomis holds a 14-3 record with consistent wins and experience at UFC level; Robert Ruchala is 11-1, a rising prospect with strong recent form but less UFC experience.
  • No previous professional meetings between Gomis and Ruchala, making this a fresh tactical matchup with unknown dynamics.
  • No reported injuries or ring-rust for either fighter as both have been actively competing recently.
  • Fighting in Paris at Accor Arena offers moderate home crowd neutrality; no significant travel or environmental issues reported.
  • Both fighters motivated to secure UFC establishment with Gomis aiming to extend his win streak and Ruchala seeking his UFC breakout victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gomis -258 / Ruchala +210 William Gomis ★★★★☆ 74%
Spread Gomis -3.5 (-105), Ruchala +3.5 (-125) William Gomis -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 2.5 (-270), Under 2.5 (+200) Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline William Gomis -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 95%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 95% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 47.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

William Gomis to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: William Gomis wins by decision or late stoppage before round 3


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Oumar Sy vs. Brendson Ribeiro Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Oumar Sy vs Brendson Ribeiro – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 6:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

Light Heavyweight UFC Fight Night contest between Oumar Sy (11-1) and Brendson Ribeiro (17-8-0). Sy is a taller, longer-reach orthodox fighter with superior striking accuracy and defense, while Ribeiro has durability issues and less efficient striking.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Oumar Sy shows dominant recent form with 11 wins and 1 loss, landing 50% of significant strikes and absorbing only 1.81 per minute. Ribeiro, with a record of 17-8, has durability concerns, having been stopped recently by TKO and absorbing over 4.04 significant strikes per minute.
  • No available historical head-to-head fights between Oumar Sy and Brendson Ribeiro, making direct matchup inference rely on style and statistics.
  • Brendson Ribeiro has notable durability issues especially after a recent TKO loss, which impacts his potential to withstand Sy’s pressure. No significant injury reports on Oumar Sy.
  • Fight occurs in Paris, Sy is slightly younger and taller, with a reach advantage. Motivation likely high for Sy to rebound from his only loss and maintain top prospect status.
  • Oumar Sy aims to validate his status as a top light heavyweight prospect with a convincing win. Ribeiro looks to overcome recent setbacks but faces a tough stylistic matchup.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Oumar Sy: -455, Brendson Ribeiro: +350 Oumar Sy ★★★★☆ 79%
Spread Oumar Sy -3.5: -245, Brendson Ribeiro +3.5: +175 Oumar Sy -3.5 ★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: -140, Under 1.5 rounds: +110 Over 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Oumar Sy -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Oumar Sy to win via Knockout

Predicted Score: Oumar Sy wins by KO/TKO in Round 2


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Marcin Tybura vs. Ante Delija Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Marcin Tybura vs Ante Delija – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 6:15 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Paris

Game Overview

Heavyweight UFC rematch between Poland's Marcin Tybura, a seasoned top-ten gatekeeper, and Croatia's Ante Delija, UFC newcomer and former PFL heavyweight champion. Both fighters have strong resumes; the bout carries high stakes for position and reputation in the division.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Tybur has a solid UFC record with a 27-9 career, showing durable and technical striking and grappling. Delija comes off dominant wins in PFL with first-round TKO victories and limited UFC experience but strong momentum as a rising prospect.
  • This matchup is a rematch; prior fight details are limited, but betting markets view it as extremely close, with Delija slightly favored due to recent dominant form and youth advantage.
  • No notable recent injuries reported for either fighter. Both appear healthy heading into the fight.
  • Fight is in Paris, neutral venue; no significant travel or altitude disadvantages. Delija’s UFC debut brings freshness, while Tybura aims to defend ranking status.
  • Delija highly motivated to establish himself in UFC with a statement win. Tybura motivated to retain top-ten gatekeeper status and avoid being passed by newcomers.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Ante Delija: -112, Marcin Tybura: -108 Ante Delija ★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread Ante Delija +3.5: -205, Marcin Tybura -3.5: +150 Ante Delija +3.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 2.5: +105, Under 2.5: -135 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ante Delija -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ante Delija moneyline win

Predicted Score: Ante Delija wins by decision or late TKO in round 3


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