Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-07
- Time: 5:36 PM UTC
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Game Overview
The Milwaukee Brewers visit the Pittsburgh Pirates in a late-season MLB matchup. The Brewers are leading the NL Central with an 88-55 record and bring a solid offensive and pitching lineup, while the Pirates hold a 64-79 record but play better at home (42-32). Brewers' starter Jacob Misiorowski (4-2, 4.50 ERA) faces Pirates' Bubba Chandler (2-0, 2.25 ERA). Betting markets favor Milwaukee on the moneyline and run line, with a total set at 8 runs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Milwaukee has won 3 of their last 4 games, scoring consistently and holding a strong pitching staff ERA of 3.60 and 1.23 WHIP. Pittsburgh is below .500 overall but performs better at home with a 42-32 record.
- Recent series saw Milwaukee winning 2 of 3 versus the Pirates. Christian Yelich has had a good personal performance in games as Brewers favorite vs Pirates, with consistent hits and homers.
- No significant injuries reported for either team that would impact starting lineups or pitching availability.
- Game played at PNC Park, where Pirates have held strong home form. Weather and field conditions expected to be neutral.
- Brewers are fighting to maintain their NL Central lead and jockey positioning heading into playoffs, motivation high. Pirates have less playoff motivation but could act as spoiler at home.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers: -154, Pittsburgh Pirates: +130 | Milwaukee Brewers | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5: +116, Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5: -140 | Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 8: -105, Under 8: -115 | Under 8 | β β β ββ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline, Pittsburgh Pirates to cover the +1.5 run spread, and the total to go under 8 runs.
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4 – 3 Pittsburgh Pirates