Match Analysis: New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-07
- Time: 5:36 PM UTC
- Location: Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, New York
Game Overview
The New York Yankees face the Toronto Blue Jays in a crucial late-season MLB matchup. The Yankees are slight favorites playing at home, with Max Fried (15-5, 2.98 ERA) starting, while the Blue Jays counter with Max Scherzer (5-2, 4.11 ERA). Both teams are in playoff contention, making this game significant for playoff seeding.
Key Factors to Consider
- Yankees have a 79-63 record with strong pitching and recent form, while Blue Jays are 82-60 with a powerful offense but less effective pitching. Yankees' starting pitcher Fried has a notably better ERA and win record compared to Scherzer.
- Recent head-to-head encounters favor the Yankees, given their home advantage and starting pitching matchup. Historical data indicates Yankees win about 58% of the matchups against the Blue Jays in similar conditions.
- No major injuries reported for either team impacting the starting lineup or rotation for this game.
- Playing at Yankee Stadium favors the Yankees, with friendly home crowd support and ballpark factors aiding their pitching and power hitting. Weather and travel fatigue are non-issues given the schedule and location.
- Both teams are motivated, fighting for playoff positioning. The Yankees' need to maintain or improve seeding at home enhances their motivation slightly above that of the Blue Jays.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -154, away: +130 | New York Yankees | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | home: +128, away: -154 | Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | over: -115, under: -105 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Yankees -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Yankees win; Spread: Yankees -1.5; Over/Under: Under 8.5 runs
Predicted Score: New York Yankees 4 – 2 Toronto Blue Jays