Match Analysis: Žalgiris vs ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-30
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Zalgiris Arena, Kaunas, Lithuania
Game Overview
This Euroleague basketball match features Žalgiris Kaunas hosting ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne. Žalgiris is slightly favored as the home team with strong defensive metrics, while ASVEL is known for a higher scoring offense. Both teams are closely matched based on recent performance and head-to-head records, creating a competitive fixture expected to be tightly contested.
Key Factors to Consider
- Žalgiris averages 80.8 points per game with a defensive performance index rating around 88.7, placing them 5th in defense in the league. ASVEL averages 86.7 points per game with a higher scoring offense, though their defense ranks lower. Both teams have similar rebound and assist stats, but ASVEL has a slight scoring edge.
- The recent head-to-head record is balanced with 6 wins each out of 12 previous Euroleague encounters. The latest match on 27/03/2025 ended with ASVEL winning 88-79 away at Zalgiris. Historically, the games have been competitive with close scorelines and no clear dominance by either side.
- No specific current injury information is available for this match. Both teams appear to have their main rosters available.
- The game is played at Zalgiris Arena, giving Žalgiris home court advantage. Travel fatigue may slightly affect ASVEL, but both teams are experienced Euroleague competitors accustomed to international travel. Broadcasts and fan attendance may boost Žalgiris’ motivation to secure a home win.
- Žalgiris, playing at home, seeks to improve their Euroleague standing and capitalize on local support. ASVEL aims to maintain momentum as a high-scoring squad and to secure an away victory for confidence in the league standings. Both teams likely approach this game as critical for mid-season positioning.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne: 270, Žalgiris: -360 | Žalgiris | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne +8: -109, Žalgiris -8: -114 | Žalgiris -8 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 161.5: -112, Under 161.5: -112 | Under 161.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Žalgiris -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 161.5 14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 161.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering the home advantage, Žalgiris' slightly better defensive stats, and balanced head-to-head record, Žalgiris is predicted to win narrowly. The game is expected to be tight with both teams scoring near the average, potentially pushing the total points close to the over/under line.
Predicted Score: Žalgiris 83 – 76 ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne