Match Analysis: Pisa vs Lazio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-30
- Time: 7:45 PM UTC
- Location: Arena Garibaldi-Romeo Anconetani, Pisa, Italy
Game Overview
This Serie A match features Pisa, ranked 19th and battling relegation, hosting Lazio, positioned 10th with mid-table security. Pisa has struggled at home with no wins and a poor defensive record, conceding 1.5 goals per game on average. Lazio have shown better defensive solidity, conceding 0.88 goals per game, and a higher scoring rate averaging 1.38 goals. Lazioβs form is mixed but generally stronger than Pisa's, with longer unbeaten runs and better recent results.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pisa has the worst form in Serie A with three straight losses and no home wins this season. They have a longer run without wins (eight matches) and twice as many matches failing to score (five times). Lazio, though inconsistent, have secured more clean sheets (4 vs Pisa's 2) and created more goal opportunities. Both teams have five under 2.25 goals matches, reflecting cautious games.
- Historically, the matchups favor Lazio, with Pisa never winning the last five H2H and no comeback wins. Lazio have recorded some clear victories versus Pisa. Pisa sometimes managed goalless draws at home but lacks the offensive threat to overcome Lazio in this contest.
- No specific injury information is available from the data provided, suggesting both teams may have near full squads for this game.
- Pisa will play at home in their stadium, trying to leverage local support, but their poor home form weakens this advantage. No notable weather or external disruptions are reported.
- Pisa are under strong pressure to avoid relegation, increasing motivation to gain points. Lazio, mid-table and not vying for top European spots currently, may play with less intensity but still aim to consolidate position.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lazio: 113, Pisa: 270, Draw: 215 | Lazio to win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Lazio -0.25: -122, Pisa +25: 102 | Lazio -0.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: 100, Under 2.25: -120 | Under 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 57% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lazio 11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Lazio at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Pisa's poor form and Lazioβs relative quality and stability, Lazio is favored to win but cannot be expected to dominate completely. A narrow Lazio victory or a low-scoring draw are the most likely outcomes.
Predicted Score: 0-1