Match Analysis: Toulouse vs Rennes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-29
- Time: 8:05 PM UTC
- Location: Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
Game Overview
The Ligue 1 match between Toulouse and Rennes on October 29, 2025, pits two mid-table teams with closely contested historical results. Toulouse holds a slight recent upper hand in direct encounters, unbeaten in their last five meetings (4 wins, 1 draw), although Rennes has historically won more overall. Toulouse plays at home at Stadium de Toulouse and currently exhibits solid defensive and moderate attacking stats, while Rennes has shown mixed away form and slightly higher offensive output but also defensive vulnerabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toulouse is 9th in Ligue 1, featuring a longer unbeaten run of 6 matches and better recent home form. They average 1.67 goals scored per match with 1.44 goals conceded, maintaining 3 clean sheets recently. Rennes, despite ranking 9th as well, have not yet won an away game this season and show a modest average of 1.33 goals scored but concede more at 1.56 on average, with only 2 clean sheets. Rennes also have a lower winning streak and longer winless runs compared to Toulouse.
- Historically, the head-to-head record is very balanced with Rennes having a slight lead of 18 wins to Toulouseβs 13 in 41 matches. In recent direct clashes, Toulouse has been dominant with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches. Toulouse tends to perform well defensively against Rennes and has not lost the last five H2H games between these teams.
- Specific injury details are not available in the provided data. However, both teams are expected to field their main squads with no headline absences noted.
- The match is played at Toulouse's home ground, giving them a slight advantage. Rennes's poor away record this season reduces their edge. No weather or other external issues appear significant at this time.
- Toulouse holds better motivation from recent form and history against Rennes, needing points to consolidate their upper mid-table position. Rennes may seek to break their away win drought but face psychological pressure from their poor road results.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toulouse: 117, Rennes: 220, Draw: 240 | Toulouse | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Toulouse: -0.25 -112, Rennes: 25 -108 | Toulouse -0.25 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -115, Under 2.5: -105 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toulouse 26% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Toulouse at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toulouse are favored to win narrowly given their stronger home form and superior recent head-to-head results. The match is expected to be competitive and tight, possibly decided by a single goal margin.
Predicted Score: 1-0