Match Analysis: Genoa vs Cremonese – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-29
- Time: 7:45 PM UTC
- Location: Luigi Ferraris, Genova, Italy
Game Overview
Genoa, currently positioned 20th in Serie A, hosts Cremonese who stand 10th, at the Luigi Ferraris stadium. Genoa has struggled this season with only 3 points, while Cremonese have a stronger mid-table presence with 11 points. Recent performances favor Cremonese in terms of ranking and stability, but Genoa will seek home advantage to turn their fortunes.[1][2]
Key Factors to Consider
- Genoa has had a difficult start to the season with few wins and a low point tally, scoring 5 goals in their last 5 matches but generally underperforming at both ends. Cremonese have had more balanced results, showing better defensive solidity and consistent scoring, placing them comfortably above Genoa in the table.[2][5]
- The recent head-to-head history is limited and does not strongly favor one side. Historically, matches between these two have been competitive but Genoa's home advantage is a notable factor. Past results in Serie A have seen mixed outcomes without clear dominance.[1][2]
- No explicit recent injury reports found for key players from either team in the search results. However, the lineups and live info updates closer to match time will be crucial to confirm availability.[1][5]
- Playing at home, Genoa benefits from local support at Luigi Ferraris. Weather and pitch conditions have not been mentioned as impactful. Motivation and pressure are higher on Genoa due to their low league standing, potentially influencing aggressive tactics.[1][5]
- Genoa is highly motivated to avoid prolonged relegation zone entrenchment, likely to play with urgency at home. Cremonese, mid-table and relatively secure, may adopt a more measured approach aiming to capitalize on opponent errors and maintain league placement.[1][2][5]
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Genoa: -115, Cremonese: 385, Draw: 220 | Genoa win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Genoa: -0.5 -115, Cremonese: 50 -105 | Genoa -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2: -120, Under 2: 100 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Genoa 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The balanced but defensively solid Cremonese are slightly favored given Genoa's poor form and league position, yet Genoa's home desire to recover points adds competitiveness. A closely contested match with a slight edge to Cremonese is expected.
Predicted Score: 1-0
