Match Analysis: Purdue Boilermakers vs Southern Illinois Salukis – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 11:35 PM UTC
- Location: Ross–Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
Game Overview
Purdue Boilermakers, a strong FBS program, host Southern Illinois Salukis, an FCS team struggling with only 3 wins in last 17 games. The last and only meeting was in 2014, where Purdue dominated 35-13. Purdue's offense is significantly more productive, and Southern Illinois has a poor recent record overall but performs better ATS on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Purdue has a much stronger recent performance with a more balanced and productive offense, averaging 35 points in their last meeting versus Southern Illinois' 13. Southern Illinois is 3-14 SU in last 17 games but 4-1 ATS on the road, indicating some value against the spread away.
- Only one previous meeting in 2014 with Purdue winning decisively 35-13. Purdue also leads ATS and O/U in that game.
- No significant injury reports found for either team that would drastically impact the outcome.
- Game at home favors Purdue, a Big Ten program, against an FCS opponent. Weather or travel issues are unlikely to play a big role given Purdue's home advantage and Southern Illinois’ road experience.
- Purdue likely motivated as a high-profile FBS team opening their season against an FCS opponent, aiming to assert dominance. Southern Illinois motivated to prove competitiveness but has not shown strong form recently.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Purdue: -1250, Southern Illinois: 740 | Purdue Boilermakers | ★★★★☆ 88% |
| Spread | Purdue -19.5: -110, Southern Illinois +19.5: -110 | Purdue Boilermakers -19.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 51.5: -110, Under 51.5: -110 | Under 51.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 51.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Purdue Boilermakers moneyline and covering the -19.5 spread with total points going under 51.5
Predicted Score: Purdue 31 – Southern Illinois 10