Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-05
- Time: 6:21 PM UTC
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs (80-60) face the Washington Nationals (56-83) at home with Cubs favored heavily due to stronger recent form, better pitching matchups, and superior overall team quality.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cubs have won 4 of their last 6 games, exhibit strong offense led by Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong, and hold a 3.88 ERA team pitching. Nationals struggle with a 56-83 record and rank low in offensive efficiency.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but Cubs have dominated this season with home advantage and stronger pitching; Cubs pitcher Javier Assad has a 3-0 record when favored despite a 4.05 ERA, while Nationals' Jake Irvin has an ERA over 5.40.
- No significant injuries reported that affect starting pitchers or key offensive players on either side.
- Game played at Wrigley Field giving Cubs home-field advantage; Cubs bullpen is ranked 5th best in MLB, which should suppress Nationalsβ offense further.
- Cubs fight for a solid playoff spot with a top NL Wild Card position; Nationals are playing mainly for pride as the season winds down.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs -230 / Washington Nationals +190 | Chicago Cubs | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Chicago Cubs -1.5 -115 / Washington Nationals +1.5 -104 | Chicago Cubs -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 10.5 100 / Under 10.5 -122 | Over 10.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 10.5 20% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 10.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Chicago Cubs to win moneyline (-230), cover the -1.5 spread (-115), and the game total to go over 10.5 runs (-110).
Predicted Score: Chicago Cubs 6 - Washington Nationals 4
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