Match Analysis: St. Louis City SC vs FC Dallas – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-07
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: CITYPARK, St. Louis, MO
Game Overview
St. Louis City SC hosts FC Dallas in an MLS regular season match where both teams are struggling for consistent success. St. Louis City SC has a poor defensive record conceding 50 goals with a goal difference of -17, while FC Dallas has managed a slightly better form with more wins but remains inconsistent.
Key Factors to Consider
- St. Louis City SC currently ranks low in MLS standings with 21 points, 5 clean sheets, but a weak defense conceding 1.79 goals per game and has a negative goals difference. FC Dallas has 7 wins but also struggles to keep clean sheets; recent form shows slight advantage for Dallas in winning matches.
- Recent head-to-head between these two show balanced contests with no clear dominance. Both teams have traded wins and draws, making this matchup competitive but slightly favoring the home side given St. Louisβ motivation.
- No major injuries reported for key players on either side, with both goalkeepers expected to start (Roman Burki for St. Louis and Michael Collodi for Dallas), indicating full strength squads.
- St. Louis playing at home with fan support and familiarity offers slight advantage. No significant weather or logistics issues expected.
- St. Louis is motivated to gain points to climb standings and stabilize after a rough season, while FC Dallas also seeks to improve playoff chances but has slightly less urgency given current position.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis City SC -104 / FC Dallas +236 / Draw +300 | St. Louis City SC | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | St. Louis City SC -0.5 -109 / FC Dallas +50 -122 | St. Louis City SC -0.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 3.5 +118 / Under 3.5 -156 | Under 3.5 goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis City SC 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3.5 -2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: St. Louis City SC at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Louis City SC to win on the moneyline, covering the -0.5 goal spread, in a low-scoring tight game under 3.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 2-1