Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-04
- Time: 10:40 PM UTC
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Game Overview
The Los Angeles Dodgers (78-61) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (63-77) in the last game of their series. The Pirates currently lead 2-0 in this series and have shown strong home form with a 41-30 record at PNC Park. The probable starting pitchers are Paul Skenes for Pittsburgh, with a 2.05 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, and Blake Snell for Los Angeles, who has a 2.41 ERA and a 3-3 record this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pirates have won 4 of their last 5 games and are playing with momentum, especially after taking the first two games in this series. Dodgers have a solid overall record but have struggled slightly in Snell's starts (2-5 ATS). Pirates' pitching ERA is 3.88 with a solid starter in Skenes; Dodgers have a potent offense but inconsistent performances this season.
- In this season's encounters, Pittsburgh leads the series and won the last two games decisively, including a 3-0 shutout in game two. Historically, Dodgers are favorites but the Pirates have held up well at home in this matchup.
- No significant injuries reported impacting either team's starting lineup or key rotation players for this game.
- Game at PNC Park favors Pirates due to home advantage. Weather and travel conditions neutral with no reported impact.
- Pirates motivated to sweep their series at home and improve their standing. Dodgers looking to avoid the sweep and maintain playoff positioning. Pirates have slightly more urgency as they are last in NL Central.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Pirates +106 | Pirates | β β β ββ 63% |
Spread | Pirates +1.5 -172 | Pirates +1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Under 7 -100 | Under 7 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Pittsburgh Pirates 9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7 30% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pirates to win on moneyline, with the game going under 7 runs, and Pirates to cover the +1.5 run spread.
Predicted Score: Pirates 4 – Dodgers 2