Match Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-04
- Time: 8:11 PM UTC
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Game Overview
The Milwaukee Brewers (86-54) host the Philadelphia Phillies (80-59) in an important late-season matchup. Both teams have strong playoff aspirations with the Brewers leading the NL Central and the Phillies atop the NL East. Starting pitching features Brewers' Freddy Peralta against Phillies' Ranger Suarez. Recent series shows split results, with the Phillies having won some key recent games but the Brewers holding a home advantage and better overall record.
Key Factors to Consider
- Milwaukee boasts an 86-54 record with strong home performance (46-25), a high win percentage as favorites (65.8%), and good recent form. Philadelphia is 80-59, with a solid offense led by Kyle Schwarber and a pitching staff with 3.85 ERA. Phillies are slightly disadvantaged on the road and have been inconsistent against top teams recently.
- The season series is competitive; Phillies won 3 of 4 prior to this game, but Brewers won the last two matchups. Ranger Suarez (Phillies) has a 0-1 record with a 3.04 ERA vs. Brewers, while Freddy Peraltaβs stats indicate a reliable home presence.
- No major injuries reported that would impact starting pitchers or key offensive players for either team.
- Game played at Brewersβ home field favors them due to strong home record and fan support. Weather conditions expected to be stable, no rain delays forecasted.
- Milwaukee seeks to solidify their playoff positioning with an NL Central lead, while Philadelphia fights to maintain NL East supremacy. Both teams are highly motivated, but Brewersβ recent better form and home advantage tilt motivation slightly in their favor.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | milwaukee: -122, philadelphia: +104 | Milwaukee Brewers | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | milwaukee_-1.5: +158, philadelphia_+1.5: -194 | Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | over_7.5: -118, under_7.5: -104 | Under 7.5 runs | β β β ββ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers 4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Milwaukee Brewers to win outright on the moneyline
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4 - 3 Philadelphia Phillies
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