Match Analysis: San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-01
- Time: 10:41 PM UTC
- Location: Petco Park
Game Overview
The San Diego Padres host the Baltimore Orioles in a late-season MLB matchup. San Diego is positioned second in the NL West with a 76-61 record, showing solid home performance and superior pitching statistics compared to Baltimore, who are 61-76 overall.
Key Factors to Consider
- Padres have a 76-61 record with a strong 43-22 home record and a pitching staff ERA of 3.63. Orioles hold a 61-76 record, with a pitching ERA of 4.73, and a weaker overall offensive profile with a .242 batting average compared to the Padres' .252.
- San Diego leads with a 59.8% win probability in this matchup historically, and the Padres have been winning at a 62.3% clip as favorites at home this season. Baltimore has struggled as underdogs with only a 29.4% win rate when odds exceed +134.
- No critical injury information affecting starting pitchers or key offensive contributors was reported; both teams appear to be fielding expected lineups.
- The game is played at Petco Park, a pitcher-friendly venue, but given Padresβ strong home record and familiarity, this slightly favors the home team. Weather or travel issues are not reported to be a factor.
- Padres are competing for a playoff position and have more motivation with a current winning record, while Orioles have a losing record and less immediate playoff incentive.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles: +130, San Diego Padres: -154 | San Diego Padres | β β β β β 74% |
Spread | Baltimore Orioles +1.5: -172, San Diego Padres -1.5: +142 | San Diego Padres -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 7.5: -122, Under 7.5: +100 | Under 7.5 | β β β ββ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego Padres -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego Padres to win on the moneyline and cover the -1.5 run spread; game total to go under 7.5 runs.
Predicted Score: Padres 4 – Orioles 2