Match Analysis: St. Louis Cardinals vs Oakland Athletics – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-01
- Time: 6:16 PM UTC
- Location: Busch Stadium
Game Overview
The St. Louis Cardinals (68-70) host the Oakland Athletics (63-75) in a late-season MLB game with both teams struggling below .500. The Cardinals are slight favorites at home with starting pitcher Sonny Gray (12-7, 4.19 ERA) going against Oaklandβs Luis Morales, a rookie with limited MLB experience but an impressive 1.19 ERA in his 2-0 season record. Offensively, both teams have similar batting metrics but Oakland has shown slightly more run production in recent face-offs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cardinals show inconsistent form with a 5-5 record in the last 10 games and a pitching staff ERA of 4.27, whereas Oakland has weaker pitching overall with a 4.83 ERA but boasts a respectable batting slugging percentage. Both teams have similar OBP around .316-.318.
- In the last 6 matchups, Cardinals won 4, Athletics 2, with Oakland notably winning their last encounter 6-3 in April 2024. Recent games are competitive with an average scoring margin close to 1 run. Historically, Oakland is +2.5 on the spread in 9 of their last 10 games against St. Louis.
- No major injury updates provided; starting pitchers confirmed. Morales is making his first start vs Cardinals.
- Game at Busch Stadium gives Cardinals home-field advantage. Late-season game where playoff motivation is moderate but Cardinals have a slight push to improve standing.
- Both teams below .500 with limited playoff hopes. Cardinals slightly more motivated due to home game and better recent head-to-head results.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis -148 / Oakland +126 | St. Louis Cardinals | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | St. Louis -1.5 +140 / Oakland +1.5 -170 | St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 8 -106 / Under 8 -114 | Under 8 runs | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Louis Cardinals to win on the moneyline and cover the -1.5 spread, with the game likely finishing under 8 total runs.
Predicted Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4, Oakland Athletics 2