Match Analysis: Edmonton Elks vs Calgary Stampeders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 1:30 AM UTC
- Location: Not specified (likely at Edmonton, home of Elks)
Game Overview
The CFL match between Edmonton Elks (home) and Calgary Stampeders (away) is a divisional rivalry with Calgary historically dominant. Calgary holds a strong 70.8% win rate overall against Edmonton, winning 34 of 48 encounters. Edmonton has struggled defensively recently, allowing more points on average than they score, while Calgary's offense has been moderately more productive, though Calgary has a recent moderate dip in form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Calgary Stampeders have a better H2H record and a stronger stretch against Edmonton with 33 wins since 2010 versus Edmonton's 13. Calgary averages about 29.8 points per game vs. Edmonton's 22.3 historically. Recently, Calgary's offense has averaged 24.4 points but conceded 19.4, winning 2 of last 5; Edmonton has averaged 20.4 points and conceded 25.2, winning 3 of last 5 games.
- Calgary dominates the head-to-head record, 34-14 overall. Since 2010, Calgary has won 33 out of 46 meetings. Calgary has roughly a 70% win rate over Edmonton, and Calgaryโs offense generally outperforms Edmonton both in scoring and in limiting points allowed.
- No specific injury data available from current sources to indicate key player absences for either team.
- Playing at home provides Edmonton some advantage, but Calgaryโs recent form and historical dominance mitigate this. No weather or travel factors stated.
- Edmonton playing at home could be motivated to upset a stronger opponent to improve standings. Calgary aims to maintain their superiority, leveraging experience and recent wins.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | calgary_stampeders: -235, edmonton_elks: 195 | Calgary Stampeders win | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Spread | calgary_stampeders: -4.5 -118, edmonton_elks: 4.5 -104 | Calgary Stampeders -4.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
| Over/under | over: 53.5 -110, under: 53.5 -110 | Over 53.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Calgary Stampeders -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 53.5 11% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 53.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Calgary Stampeders favored to win given historical dominance and better form, but Edmonton's home advantage and recent slight uptick in wins maintain playoff stakes competitive. Expect a moderately high-scoring game with Calgary covering the spread.
Predicted Score: Calgary Stampeders 30 – Edmonton Elks 23