Match Analysis: Santos vs Fluminense – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-31
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Santos home stadium
Game Overview
This Brasileirão Serie A match features a mid-to-lower table Santos (15th place, 21 points) hosting Fluminense, who are mid-table (9th place, 27 points). Both teams have to push for points as Fluminense aims to climb further up the standings while Santos tries to avoid the relegation zone.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fluminense has a slightly better recent form and position with 8 wins in 19 matches versus Santos' 6 wins in 20 matches. Santos has struggled with a -11 goal difference compared to Fluminense's -3.
- Recent head-to-head favors Fluminense with a higher probability to win (46.86%) compared to Santos (34.94%) and a lower draw chance (18.2%).
- No significant absentees reported for either side that would drastically affect starting lineups.
- No notable external conditions (weather, travel issues) affect the match. Home advantage slightly favors Santos.
- Fluminense motivated to improve their standing; Santos fighting relegation, adding competitive tension.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fluminense: 212, Santos: 131, Draw: 220 | Fluminense | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Spread | Fluminense: -0.25 -120, Santos: +25 100 | Santos -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | Over: 2 -125, Under: 2 +105 | Over 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fluminense 47% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Fluminense at 47% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fluminense to win on the moneyline; Santos to cover the -0.25 spread; Over 2 goals.
Predicted Score: 1-2