Match Analysis: Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-29
- Time: 11:11 PM UTC
- Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Game Overview
The Seattle Mariners (72-62) visit the Cleveland Guardians (66-66) in a late August MLB matchup featuring starting pitchers George Kirby for Seattle and Logan Allen for Cleveland. The Mariners are slight favorites on the road, supported by stronger offensive metrics and recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Seattle ranks highly in power hitting, with 191 home runs and a .241 batting average, while Cleveland ranks near the bottom in slugging (.366) and on-base percentage (.295). Seattle has a better pitching ERA (3.97) and WHIP (1.26) compared to Cleveland's less impressive pitching stats. Seattle has won 3 of their last 4 games, showing solid momentum.
- Historically, George Kirby has struggled against Cleveland with a 6.11 ERA but limited sample size, whereas Logan Allen has performed well (2-0 with 2.13 ERA) versus Seattle. However, Allenβs recent inconsistency and Seattle's offensive strength tilt the advantage toward the Mariners.
- No significant injuries reported for either team impacting this game from recent available data.
- The game is at Cleveland's home stadium, Progressive Field. Weather and other external conditions do not present substantial impact. Travel fatigue marginally affects Seattle but their strong away record tempers this.
- Seattle is currently second in AL West and motivated to maintain playoff standing, while Cleveland is middle-of-the-road with less pressing playoff urgency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Seattle Mariners -156, Cleveland Guardians +132 | Seattle Mariners | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Seattle Mariners -1.5 +114, Cleveland Guardians +1.5 -137 | Seattle Mariners -1.5 | β β β ββ 66% |
Over/under | Over 8 -100, Under 8 -122 | Under 8 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Seattle Mariners -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Seattle Mariners moneyline win
Predicted Score: Seattle Mariners 5 – Cleveland Guardians 3