Match Analysis: Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-29
- Time: 11:11 PM UTC
- Location: Fenway Park, Boston
Game Overview
The Boston Red Sox host the Pittsburgh Pirates in a late-season MLB matchup at Fenway Park with the Red Sox holding a strong home record and the Pirates struggling on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boston Red Sox stand at 75-60 overall with a confident 41-25 home record and recent form of 4-1 in their last 5 games, while the Pittsburgh Pirates have a weaker 59-76 overall and just 20-46 away, impacted by inconsistent hitting and pitching.
- Recent head-to-head trends favor the Red Sox who have shown superiority both straight up and on the moneyline in encounters, with the Pirates underperforming against them historically.
- No major injuries reported for either side impacting starting pitching or key offensive contributors; both starters Paul Skenes (Pirates) and Payton Tolle (Red Sox) expected to pitch effectively.
- Weather conditions at Fenway are mild with 66Β°F and light rain (36%) which may slightly affect hitting but favor pitchers; typical Fenway dimensions favor Bostonβs style.
- Red Sox are pushing for playoff positioning with high motivation, while the Pirates are effectively eliminated from contention, likely lowering their intensity and effectiveness.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox: -113, Pittsburgh Pirates: -105 | Boston Red Sox | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Boston Red Sox +1.5: -200, Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5: +160 | Boston Red Sox +1.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Over/under | Over 8: -107, Under 8: -113 | Under 8 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox 13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Boston Red Sox at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boston Red Sox to win outright on moneyline, cover +1.5 on the spread, and the game to go under 8 total runs.
Predicted Score: Boston Red Sox 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates 2