Match Analysis: Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-29
- Time: 10:41 PM UTC
- Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
Game Overview
The Cincinnati Reds (68-66) host the St. Louis Cardinals (66-69) in a critical late-season MLB matchup impacting NL Wild Card positioning, with Reds favored on the moneyline and at home against an inconsistent Cardinals team.
Key Factors to Consider
- Reds hold a slight winning record and have a strong home record (36-29), while Cardinals have struggled on the road (29-37). Reds were recently swept by the Dodgers; Cardinals have lost four of their last six games.
- Season series is close with Cardinals leading 4-3, but Reds have been competitive especially at home, with a projected scoring edge.
- No major injuries reported impacting starting pitchers or key hitters; both teams expected to start their probable pitchers Zack Littell (Reds) and Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals).
- Game played at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park; weather conditions not noted as adverse; Cardinals on the road historically have a weaker record.
- Reds are pushing to improve Wild Card chances needing a win to close gap with Mets; Cardinals aim to climb the NL Central standings with a sweep opportunity.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -122, away: +104 | Cincinnati Reds | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | home: +1.5 at -205, away: -1.5 at +168 | Cincinnati Reds +1.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Over/under | over: +100, under: -122 | Under 9 Runs | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds 9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9 4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Cincinnati Reds at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Cincinnati Reds Win, Spread: Cincinnati Reds +1.5, Over/Under: Under 9 Runs
Predicted Score: Reds 5 – Cardinals 3