Match Analysis: St. Louis City SC vs Houston Dynamo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-31
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: CITYPARK, St. Louis, MO
Game Overview
St. Louis City SC and Houston Dynamo face off in an MLS regular season match at CITYPARK. St. Louis has struggled defensively this season reflected in their negative goal difference, while Houston has been relatively more stable. Both teams have moderate scoring rates, suggesting a match with potential for goals.
Key Factors to Consider
- St. Louis City SC hold a weaker overall record and defensive metrics (44 goals conceded, 1.69 goals against per game, save percentage 69%), with only 5 clean sheets this season and a negative goal difference. Houston Dynamo sit higher in the standings with better recent form and a save percentage of 61.1%.
- Limited recent data suggests competitive but low-margin games; neither team dominates strongly. Both squads have similar likelihoods to score, indicating open play and potential goals.
- No major injury reports impacting starting XI for either side have been noted, suggesting both teams will field near full-strength squads.
- The match is held at St. Louis home venue CITYPARK, which should provide some home advantage for St. Louis City SC. Weather and travel conditions are not indicated to impair performance.
- Houston Dynamo currently sit ahead in the MLS table and maintain a slightly better point form, providing them incentive to secure at least a point on the road, while St. Louis City SC are fighting to improve their position and avoid further slide.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: 115, away: 200, draw: 280 | St. Louis City SC | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | home: 110, away: -147, line: 50 | St. Louis City SC -0.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Over/under | over: 131, under: -175, line: 3.5 | Under 3.5 goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis City SC 16% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3.5 -3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: St. Louis City SC at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on St. Louis City SC to win the moneyline, with a predicted close and moderately high-scoring game favoring the home side
Predicted Score: 2-1