Match Analysis: Botafogo vs Bragantino-SP – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-30
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Nilton Santos (Engenhão), Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
Botafogo hosts Bragantino-SP in a Brasileirão Serie A clash where Botafogo is slightly favored given home advantage, stronger recent form, and better league standing.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo has a stronger performance profile with 8 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses from 17 matches, sitting 5th with +13 goal difference; Bragantino is 9th with 8 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses in 20 matches and a -4 goal difference.
- Recent encounters show slight edge to Botafogo, including a 2-0 Copa do Brasil win and draws in league and Copa Libertadores matches, indicating competitive but Botafogo-favored H2H dynamics.
- No critical injuries reported that affect Botafogo’s starting lineup; Bragantino’s injury status not notable enough to shift advantage.
- Match played at Botafogo’s home stadium, boosting home team confidence; no adverse weather or travel complications noted.
- Botafogo motivated to consolidate top 5 position; Bragantino looking to improve form after recent struggles including a five-game losing streak in other competitions.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Botafogo: -176, Draw: 285, Bragantino-SP: 500 | Botafogo | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Botafogo -1: 105, Bragantino +1: -125 | Botafogo -1 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -118, Under 2.25: -102 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Botafogo 10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 27% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Botafogo to win on the moneyline, covering the -1 spread; total goals under 2.5 expected due to tactical approaches and previous low scoring encounters.
Predicted Score: 2-0