Match Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-28
- Time: 6:10 PM UTC
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Game Overview
Milwaukee Brewers host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the final game of a four-game MLB series. Brewers are favored at home with starting pitcher Jose Quintana (10-4, 3.32 ERA) against Nabil Crismatt (1-0, 1.00 ERA) in his first career start versus Milwaukee.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Brewers hold a strong 83-51 season record and a 68.1% win rate when favorites, including 14-4 when favored at or above -168. The Diamondbacks are 65-69, struggling as underdogs with just three wins at +142 or longer odds this year.
- Milwaukee has a positive recent head-to-head edge. Quintana is 1-0 with a 3.70 ERA in five recent starts against Arizona. The Brewers won the majority of similar matchups.
- No significant injuries reported affecting starting rotations or key hitters for this game.
- Game played at Brewers' home stadium, American Family Field, with no weather or travel disruption expected. Brewers have motivation to maintain position before an upcoming marquee series; Diamondbacks are improving but possibly focusing on upcoming division play.
- Brewers seek to avoid consecutive losses and maintain home dominance; Diamondbacks attempt to build momentum after recent wins but face a challenging road environment.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee -166, Arizona +140 | Milwaukee | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Milwaukee -1.5 122, Arizona +1.5 -146 | Milwaukee -1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -115, Under 8.5 -105 | Over 8.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Milwaukee Brewers will win the game outright, cover the -1.5 run line, and the total will go over 8.5 runs.
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5, Arizona Diamondbacks 3