Match Analysis: Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-28
- Time: 5:06 PM UTC
- Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland
Game Overview
The Boston Red Sox, currently wild card contenders with a 74-60 record, face the struggling Baltimore Orioles (60-73) at Camden Yards. Boston starts ace Garrett Crochet (14-5, 2.38 ERA), while Baltimore counters with Cade Povich (2-7, 5.13 ERA). The Red Sox have strong pitching and slightly better offensive metrics, making them favorites in this matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boston holds a better season record and pitching stats (3.67 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) compared to Baltimore's 4.68 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Baltimore has lost 6 of their last 7 games, while Boston is motivated to maintain wild card positioning.
- Boston won 3 out of their last 5 meetings versus Baltimore. In the current series, Baltimore dropped the first three games but had led late in one, showing fight despite losses.
- Boston is missing key players such as Josh Winckowski, Triston Casas, and others on 60-day IL. Baltimore has no major recent injury reports impacting the starting lineup for this game.
- The game is played at Camden Yards, a hitter-friendly park, but the starting pitching matchup favors the Red Sox. Weather and other factors appear normal.
- Boston is fighting for a wild card spot with the Yankees and needs a win. Baltimore, last in AL East and with poor recent form, has less to play for but could be dangerous playing at home.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -180 | Boston Red Sox | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | -104 | Boston Red Sox -1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | -105 | Under 8 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boston Red Sox moneyline
Predicted Score: Boston Red Sox 4, Baltimore Orioles 2