Match Analysis: Lecce vs AC Milan – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-29
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Via del Mare, Lecce, Italy
Game Overview
AC Milan enters as the clear favorite against Lecce with shorter odds and stronger recent form, while Lecce is the underdog with home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- AC Milan had a mixed start to the season with a loss and draw but retains strong historical favorite performance (64.3% win rate as moneyline favorite); Lecce showed resilience but lost two of three recent games.
- Historically, AC Milan dominates head to head results against Lecce, with Milan winning the majority of those encounters.
- No major injuries reported that significantly weaken AC Milan; Lecce has no key injury concerns but generally less depth.
- Home venue provides Lecce with some advantage; however, no notable weather or extraordinary external factors affect the match.
- AC Milan aims to rebound from a slow start and maintain Serie A title contention; Lecce motivated to leverage home support to upset the favorites.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | AC Milan: -144, Lecce: +425, Draw: +265 | AC Milan | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | AC Milan: -0.75 -112, Lecce: +75 -108 | AC Milan -0.75 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over: -120, Under: +100 | Under 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | AC Milan 5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AC Milan Moneyline
Predicted Score: 1-2