Match Analysis: Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-29
- Time: 6:30 PM UTC
- Location: Hamburger SV Home Stadium
Game Overview
This Bundesliga match pits Hamburg SV against FC St. Pauli in a regional derby with high local rivalry. Both teams have shown offensive struggles early in the season, but Hamburg SV holds the slight edge playing at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Hamburger SV has scored only 1 goal in their first two league matches and generally struggles offensively, averaging around 0.33 goals in their last six games. St. Pauli shows similar attacking weakness, having scored 28 goals in 34 matches last season with a high frequency of under 2.5 goal games (71%).
- In their last meeting, Hamburger SV narrowly won 1-0, highlighting a typically low-scoring and tight contest between the two sides.
- No prominent injuries reported that significantly affect starting lineups for either team.
- The match is a derby with intense local rivalry which can increase competitive motivation but may also cause cautious play.
- Hamburger SV, playing at home, will be motivated to secure a win early in the season to build momentum. St. Pauli will aim to upset the home side but has shown less consistency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hamburger SV: 138, FC St. Pauli: 200, Draw: 230 | Hamburger SV | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Hamburger SV -0.25: 105, FC St. Pauli +25: -125 | Hamburger SV -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -108, Under 2.5: -112 | Under 2.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hamburger SV 31% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Hamburger SV at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Hamburger SV to win on the moneyline, Hamburger SV -0.25 on the spread, Under 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0
