Match Analysis: New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-27
- Time: 11:11 PM UTC
- Location: Citi Field, New York
Game Overview
The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies in a pivotal late August MLB matchup. Mets are slight moneyline favorites at home with a spread of -1.5 and the total set at 8.5 runs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Philadelphia leads the NL East with a 76-56 record, boasting solid offensive metrics (.257 BA, .327 OBP, 625 runs scored) and a 3.83 ERA pitching staff. Mets are 71-61, performing well as -154 favorites (59.8% win rate) but have struggled against the spread (60-65). Phillies have had mixed recent form, dropping 3 of last 5 but winning series prior.
- Phillies took first two games in the series by scores 13-3 and 6-5 but Mets have home advantage. Taijuan Walker (Phillies) has struggled historically vs Mets (1-4 with 4.86 ERA), though currently pitching well in August. Mets' starter McLean has limited but quality career innings vs Phillies.
- No significant injuries reported impacting either sideβs starting pitchers or key offensive players.
- Game played outdoors at Citi Field, normal weather conditions expected. No weather or ballpark factors heavily favoring either side.
- Phillies lead division and playoff motivation strong. Mets fighting to climb standings, motivated to defend home turf and rebound after recent losses in the series.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Mets -154 / Phillies +130 | Mets | β β β ββ 62% |
Spread | Mets -1.5 +138 / Phillies +1.5 -166 | Phillies +1.5 | β β β ββ 64% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -120 / Under 8.5 -102 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Mets -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York Mets moneyline, Phillies +1.5 spread, Under 8.5 runs total
Predicted Score: Mets 4 – Phillies 3