Match Analysis: South Florida Bulls vs Boise State Broncos - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-28
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Game Overview
This Week 1 NCAA matchup features the No. 25 Boise State Broncos visiting the South Florida Bulls. Boise State enters with a top-5 scoring offense from last season but without star RB Ashton Jeanty, while South Florida is aiming to bounce back with QB Byrum Brown returning from injury. Both offenses are potent but defenses are suspect, setting the stage for a high-scoring and competitive game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boise State scored 37.3 points per game last season (5th nationally) while allowing 22.6 points; South Florida averaged 32.2 points (33rd) but allowed 29.8 points (99th). Boise State has more consistent offensive returning starters and a two-headed rushing attack, while South Florida relies on Byrum Brown's return to full form.
- Limited recent meetings with no significant history favoring either team; Boise Stateβs pedigree and more recent national relevance tilt slight advantage.
- Boise State lost Ashton Jeanty to the NFL, affecting their ground game; South Floridaβs Byrum Brown returns from a serious leg injury and is key to their offensive threat.
- Game played in Tampaβs warm, humid climate could impact Boise State's performance negatively due to southern heat conditions; it is also South Florida's home game providing crowd advantage.
- Boise State aims to affirm Group of 5 playoff contenders status without Jeanty; South Florida seeks a statement win at home to build on last season's bowl success.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Boise State: -238, South Florida: +195 | Boise State | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Boise State -6.5: -108, South Florida +6.5: -112 | Boise State -6.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 63.5: -108, Under 63.5: -112 | Over 63.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Boise State Broncos -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 63.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 63.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boise State to win straight up on the moneyline given their superior roster stability and offensive firepower, despite the challenging away environment. The game is expected to be close with Boise State covering the 6.5-point spread and the total going over 63.5 points due to both defenses' vulnerabilities and explosive offenses.
Predicted Score: Boise State 34 - South Florida 27
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