Match Analysis: East Carolina Pirates vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-16
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Bagwell Field at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville
Game Overview
East Carolina Pirates host Tulsa Golden Hurricane in a matchup with East Carolina favored heavily. East Carolina is 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS this season, showing solid improvement and profitability on the field. Tulsa stands at 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS, struggling with offensive and defensive rankings and is considered to be in a potentially lost season.
Key Factors to Consider
- East Carolina has been strong ATS recently (5-1-1 ATS last 7 games) and 8-4 SU last 12 games, indicating consistent performance. Tulsaโs offense ranks in the lower-middle tier nationally (83rd total offense) and defensively ranks poorly against the rush (114th), contributing to their 2-4 record. East Carolina, despite a recent loss, maintains better overall metrics and outcomes.
- No direct detailed recent head-to-head records provided, but East Carolina has stronger recent ATS and SU form compared to Tulsa, suggesting a competitive edge.
- No specific injury reports available from the provided data, indicating no major impactful injuries publicly highlighted before the match.
- Game at East Carolinaโs home stadium with mild weather (56ยฐF, 0% rain, 6 mph wind), which favors normal game conditions without weather disruptions. Psychological advantage of home crowd support likely benefits East Carolina.
- East Carolina appears motivated to capitalize on their home advantage to improve their even record this season, while Tulsa faces challenges and may be demoralized by recent heavy loss and poor standings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates: -770, Tulsa Golden Hurricane: 540 | East Carolina Pirates win | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates: -16.5 -110, Tulsa Golden Hurricane: +16.5 -110 | East Carolina covers -16.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Over/under | over: 55.5 -105, under: 55.5 -115 | Over 55.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 55.5 17% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 55.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
East Carolina Pirates are predicted to win decisively, benefiting from home advantage, better statistical profiles, and stronger recent form. The high spread line suggests a likely dominant performance against Tulsaโs struggling defense. The total points prediction indicates a moderately high-scoring game with probable over total points.
Predicted Score: East Carolina Pirates 38 – Tulsa Golden Hurricane 17