Match Analysis: San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-24
- Time: 8:11 PM UTC
- Location: PETCO Park, San Diego, California
Game Overview
The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers in a crucial NL West series finale with both teams closely matched at 74-56 and 73-57 respectively. The Padres hold a slight divisional lead and recent form favors them after a win over the Dodgers the previous day. Starting pitching features Nick Pivetta (13-4, 2.81 ERA) for the Padres and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (10-8, ~2.8 ERA) for the Dodgers.
Key Factors to Consider
- Padres have momentum with a recent win over Dodgers at home and currently hold the division lead. Dodgers aim to rebound but have been edged by Padres locally this weekend.
- Padres have taken two of three in this series with the last win a decisive 5-1 victory. In pitching matchups, Pivetta has historically matched well against Dodgers, with a 2.59 ERA in last five starts versus them.
- Yamamoto has a brief injury history affecting matchups against Padres. No major injuries reported for Padres pitching staff.
- Game at Padresβ home park PETCO, known as a pitcher-friendly venue which may suppress scoring and favor strong pitching performances.
- Padres motivated to extend division lead with home win and complete series sweep. Dodgers motivated to close divisional gap and stop Padres momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -110 | San Diego Padres | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | San Diego Padres +1.5 (-184) | San Diego Padres +1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Under 7.5 (+102) | Under 7.5 | β β β ββ 66% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego Padres 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 33% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego Padres moneyline to win the game
Predicted Score: Padres 4 – Dodgers 2