Match Analysis: Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-24
- Time: 5:41 PM UTC
- Location: loanDepot Park, Miami
Game Overview
Toronto Blue Jays visit Miami Marlins for a pivotal late-season MLB matchup. Blue Jays are slight favorites on the road, with a strong motivation to sweep the series. Miami looks to avoid sweep backed by strong starting pitching at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Blue Jays hold a 76-54 record overall and have been solid favorites with a 27-11 record when favored by -134 or more. Marlins are struggling at 60-69 overall with weaker home performance (29-35). Toronto is stronger on the road (34-33) but Miami's starting pitcher Perez has been hit or miss recently.
- Toronto has dominated early in this three-game series and aims for a sweep. H2H form favors Blue Jays, but Miami has home advantage and a strong arm starting to disrupt the sweep.
- Key injuries on both sides: Miami missing Santana, Francis, Burr, Guerrero; Toronto lacks Norby, Conine, Pauley, Tinoco, Stowers, Meyer, Weathers, Lopez. Injuries impact bench depth more than starters.
- Playing at loanDepot Park, a medium scoring venue. Weather conditions typical for Miami in August, no reported heavy weather disruptions expected.
- Blue Jays highly motivated to finish sweep and consolidate AL East lead. Marlins motivated to stop skid and protect home turf before playoffs are out of reach.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | 114 | Miami Marlins | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | -156 | Miami Marlins +1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | -120 | Under 7.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Miami Marlins 18% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 19% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Marlins Moneyline
Predicted Score: Miami Marlins 4, Toronto Blue Jays 3