Match Analysis: Palmeiras vs Juventude – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Allianz Parque, São Paulo, Brazil
Game Overview
Palmeiras, currently ranked 1st in the Brazil Campeonato Serie A, will host Juventude, ranked 19th, in this upcoming match at Allianz Parque. Palmeiras has a strong history and superior recent form, while Juventude is struggling particularly in away matches. Palmeiras is favored heavily by bookmakers and statistics for this fixture.
Key Factors to Consider
- Palmeiras has won 2 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per match and conceding 0 goals per match, showing defensive solidity. Juventude has won 3, drawn 1, and lost 1 in their last 5 matches but concedes an average of 3.4 goals per match, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Palmeiras have a stronger season performance overall and superior goal difference.
- Palmeiras dominates historically with 9 wins out of 14 matches against Juventude, while Juventude has only 2 wins with 3 draws. In the last 6 meetings, Palmeiras are unbeaten with 5 wins and 1 draw. Average goals per match between them is approximately 1.7, with Palmeiras scoring more frequently.
- Palmeiras have several key players unavailable due to suspensions (Vitor Roque, Emiliano Martinez, Gustavo Gomez) and injuries (Figueiredo, Khellven, Lucas Evangelista, Paulinho, Ramon Sosa), plus some international duty absences. Juventude is missing Mandaca (suspension), Wilker Angel, Emerson Galego, Gabriel Veron, and Nata due to injuries.
- The match is at Palmeiras' home ground, Allianz Parque, providing them home advantage with crowd support. The game is late in the season where Palmeiras will aim to consolidate their top position. Weather or other conditions were not specified.
- Palmeiras is highly motivated to maintain their championship lead and secure points at home, while Juventude is fighting relegation pressures positioned 19th and will seek to avoid a defeat that could endanger their survival chances.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | palmeiras: -450, juventude: 1200, draw: 475 | Palmeiras to win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | palmeiras: -1.75 @ -105, juventude: +1.75 @ -115 | Palmeiras -1.75 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | over_2.5: -122, under_2.5: 102 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Palmeiras -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 21% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Palmeiras are predicted to win this match based on superior team quality, home advantage, historical dominance, and current form. Juventude’s defensive frailties and several unavailable players worsen their prospects.
Predicted Score: 2-0