Match Analysis: Palmeiras vs Sport Recife - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-25
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Allianz Parque, São Paulo, Brazil
Game Overview
Palmeiras, currently 2nd in the Brazil Serie A with 33 points from 16 matches, hosts struggling Sport Recife, who sit 20th with just 6 points and no wins. Palmeiras have a strong home advantage and superior form, while Sport Recife have a poor defensive record and motivation to avoid relegation pressure.
Key Factors to Consider
- Palmeiras have won 10 of 16 matches, showing solid consistency and positive goal difference (+7). Sport Recife have no wins, with 6 draws and 10 losses, and a -16 goal difference.
- In recent head-to-head this season, Palmeiras secured a 2-1 away win over Sport Recife. Historically, Palmeiras dominate these matchups and maintain a high winning probability (>66%).
- No significant injuries reported for key Palmeiras players. Sport Recife squad lacks depth, but no major absences noted that drastically change strength balance.
- Match is at Allianz Parque, Palmeiras' strong home stadium with robust fan support. Weather and pitch conditions expected normal, no external disruptions.
- Palmeiras are chasing top positions and need full points. Sport Recife are fighting relegation, which may increase urgency but their poor recent form limits confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -300, away: +825, draw: +385 | Palmeiras | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Palmeiras: -1.25 -122, Sport Recife: +1.25 +102 | Palmeiras -1.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -102, Under 2.5: -118 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Palmeiras -7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Palmeiras to win on moneyline, cover -1.25 spread, and match to be under 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: 2-0
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