Match Analysis: Missouri Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
Game Overview
The matchup features the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1 overall, 2-0 SEC) visiting the unbeaten No. 14 Missouri Tigers (5-0 overall, 1-0 SEC) on October 11, 2025. Alabama, a perennial powerhouse, has impressed with a strong defense and efficient offense led by Heisman candidate Ty Simpson. Missouri is undefeated, boasting explosive total offense (averaging 548 yards per game) and the nation's leading rusher, Ahmad Hardy. Both teams have potent receiving corps and solid running backs, making this a high-stakes SEC contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Missouri has outscored opponents by a wide margin (45.2 to 14.6 points per game) and dominates time of possession with about 80 snaps per game compared to opponents' 50. Alabama dates a more balanced but efficient attack, excelling in ball control and minimizing turnovers, having only one all season. Alabamaโs defense has performed well, especially in containing mobile quarterbacks recently. Missouriโs rushing attack led by Hardy and QB Beau Pribulaโs running ability contrasts with Alabamaโs strong passing game led by Ty Simpson.
- Recent direct matchups show Alabama typically favored due to historical SEC dominance; however, Missouri is undefeated this season and playing at home, potentially closing the gap. Both teams have top-15 rankings, signaling a very competitive game. Exact head-to-head win-loss recent records are not explicitly stated, but Alabamaโs status as preseason power suggests a slight historical edge.
- No specific injury updates currently available in the provided data. Both teams appear to be mostly healthy and fielding their key players.
- The game is at Missouriโs home stadium, Faurot Field, which is sold out, providing a strong home atmosphere for Missouri. Weather conditions or unusual external circumstances are not reported, so expected to be neutral. Motivational factors include Missouri seeking an undefeated regular season and Alabama aiming to sustain national title contention.
- Missouri seeks to maintain its perfect record and prove legitimacy against a top-10 opponent at home. Alabama is motivated to rebound from a rare loss and maintain SEC dominance and national playoff positioning. Both teams have strong recent winning streaks (Alabama 4 wins, Missouri 5 wins), adding intensity to the encounter.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide: -154, Missouri Tigers: 130 | Alabama Crimson Tide | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide: -3.5 -104, Missouri Tigers: 3.5 -118 | Alabama Crimson Tide to cover -3.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 51.5 -110, Under: 51.5 -110 | Over 51.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 51.5 5% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 51.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alabama is favored to win by a narrow margin given their efficient offense, defensive discipline, and experience in close SEC contests. Missouriโs high-powered offense and home advantage create a significant upset potential. The prediction is Alabama covering the spread and winning a moderately high-scoring game.
Predicted Score: Alabama Crimson Tide 31 – Missouri Tigers 27