Match Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 11:11 PM UTC
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Game Overview
Milwaukee Brewers (81-48) host the San Francisco Giants (61-68) in a pivotal late August MLB matchup. Brewers boast superior season performance and are favored at home against a struggling Giants team that has lost 11 of their last 13 games. Starting pitchers are Freddy Peralta for Milwaukee, with strong season numbers but some predictive regression, and Logan Webb for San Francisco, delivering an elite season yet backed by a weaker offensive lineup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Brewers rank 9th offensively with strong team batting; Giants rank 26th, struggling in offense and recent form. Brewers had a close win prior against Giants, maintaining momentum. Milwaukee's record in Peralta starts is strong (12-4). Giants have losses in 11 of 13 recent games, indicating poor form.
- Recent close games with Brewers narrowly winning the prior meeting. Giants have a history of being underdogs versus Brewers when Webb starts but won those rare moneyline underdog games. Overall slight edge to Brewers.
- No significant injuries reported for either team affecting starters. Lineups expected to be close to full strength.
- Game at Brewersβ home ballpark American Family Field favors Brewers. Weather and other external conditions expected neutral.
- Brewers pushing for playoff positioning, highly motivated with superior record. Giants already below .500 and less postseason pressure, reducing urgency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee -130, San Francisco +110 | Milwaukee Brewers | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Milwaukee -1.5 +155, San Francisco +1.5 -188 | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 -105, Under 7.5 -115 | Under 7.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 run line, and the total to go under 7.5 runs.
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4 – San Francisco Giants 2