Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 10:41 PM UTC
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Game Overview
The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Colorado Rockies in a late August MLB game. The Pirates won the first game of the series decisively (9-0), showing strong pitching and hitting, while the Rockies have struggled all season with poor pitching and overall performance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pirates have a 55-74 record, with recent form strong including 3 wins in last 4 games. Pirates pitching staff has a 3.99 ERA and a .238 opponent batting average. Rockies are 37-92 with a problematic pitching staff ERA over 6.0 and a WHIP of 1.61, reflecting poor run prevention.
- Pirates dominated the opening game of this series 9-0 with strong starting pitching by Mike Ashcraft and a potent offense led by McCutchen. Kyle Freeland has a 3-4 record with a 4.73 ERA historically against Pittsburgh, indicating mediocre matchups for the Rockies.
- Pirates are missing Oneil Cruz (IL), their leading home run hitter; however, they still have offensive depth. No critical injuries reported for Rockies pitching or hitting.
- Game played at PNC Park, a neutral-to-pitcher friendly park which benefits Pittsburghβs stronger pitching staff. Rockies are on a tough stretch with upcoming games against strong teams like Astros, Cubs, and Giants increasing motivation for Pirates to capitalize.
- Pirates, though last in NL Central, have motivation to improve late season and build momentum. Rockies, with a 37-92 record, likely have less motivation and morale is low given poor performance.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | PIT -164 / COL +138 | PIT | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | PIT -1.5 +118 / COL +1.5 -142 | PIT -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -105 / Under 8.5 -115 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Pittsburgh Pirates -0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pittsburgh Pirates to win moneyline, cover -1.5 spread, and the game to go under 8.5 runs
Predicted Score: 4-2 Pittsburgh Pirates