Match Analysis: Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 10:06 PM UTC
- Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Game Overview
Philadelphia Phillies, currently leading NL East, host the underdog Washington Nationals in the second game of their series. Phillies are favored on moneyline and runline with a total set at 9.5 runs. Phillies' pitching is moderate with Aaron Nola starting despite recent poor stats, while the Nationals look to build on a surprise win in the opener.
Key Factors to Consider
- Phillies hold a 74-54 record with solid hitting and pitching (3.77 ERA), recently winning 4 of 5 games; Nationals at 53-75 have struggled overall but upset Phillies last game.
- Phillies won 3 of 4 games earlier this season against Nationals; Philadelphia also leads series 3-1 prior to this match-up.
- No major injuries reported affecting starting line-ups; Phillies projected starter Nola struggles potentially impacting pitching performance.
- Home-field advantage for Phillies at Citizens Bank Park; no weather or notable situational concerns reported.
- Phillies aim to maintain divisional lead and rebound from last gameβs loss; Nationals motivated to capitalize on momentum after upset win.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies -230 / Washington Nationals +190 | Philadelphia Phillies | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -115 / Washington Nationals +1.5 -104 | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 9.5 -115 / Under 9.5 -105 | Over 9.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies -7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 9.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 9.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Philadelphia Phillies to win on the moneyline, covering the spread of -1.5, with the total runs going over 9.5.
Predicted Score: Phillies 6 – Nationals 4