Match Analysis: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Tel Aviv – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-08
- Time: 6:05 PM UTC
- Location: Arena 8888 Sofia (Neutral ground)
Game Overview
This is a high-profile Israeli derby in the EuroLeague's third round featuring a surprising Hapoel Tel Aviv side on a 2-0 start versus a struggling Maccabi Tel Aviv team currently on a three-game losing streak across all competitions. Hapoel has impressed with big wins over Barcelona and Anadolu Efes, while Maccabi's defense has been leaky, conceding 79, 85, then 101 points in their last three games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Hapoel Tel Aviv is currently undefeated in EuroLeague play with solid defensive and offensive performances. Maccabi Tel Aviv, historically dominant, are underperforming early this season with defensive lapses and poor recent results.
- In 65 previous matches, Maccabi leads with 48 wins to Hapoel's 17. The recent encounter on March 2, 2025, ended 76-70 in favor of Hapoel. Historically, Maccabi averages about 84 points per game versus Hapoel's 77.5, with average total scores around 161.
- No specific current injury reports for key players were found in the data available, suggesting both teams likely have their main rosters ready.
- The game is played on neutral ground in Sofia with referees Ilija Belosevic, Uros Nikolic, and Michele Rossi officiating. Both teams appear motivated given the derby nature and early season stakes.
- Hapoel aims to maintain their unbeaten EuroLeague record and continue their strong defensive form. Maccabi needs to reverse their losing streak and restore confidence, increasing motivation but they face mental pressure from recent losses.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -340, away: 270 | Hapoel Tel Aviv to win | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | home: -7.5 -112, away: 7.5 -108 | Hapoel Tel Aviv -7.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | over: 175 -112, under: 175 -108 | Under 175 points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hapoel Tel Aviv 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 175 25% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 175 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Hapoel Tel Aviv is favored to win this encounter due to their current form, defensive solidity, and momentum, despite Maccabi's historical dominance. Maccabi's defensive struggles and poor recent performances lower their chances of an away victory in a high-tension derby.
Predicted Score: Hapoel Tel Aviv 82 – 72 Maccabi Tel Aviv