Match Analysis: Bahia vs Santos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-24
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Game Overview
Bahia hosts Santos in a crucial Brasileirão Serie A match with Bahia positioned 4th and Santos struggling at 15th in the table. Bahia shows stronger recent form and better goal difference, playing at home where they traditionally perform well.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bahia holds a solid record with 9 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses in 18 matches this season, boasting a positive goal difference of +8. Santos has struggled with 6 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, and a negative goal difference of -9 after 19 matches.
- Recent encounters favor Bahia, who have consistently secured better results against Santos, enhanced by strong home form at Arena Fonte Nova.
- No significant injury reports indicate major absences for either side, allowing both teams to field near full-strength squads.
- Playing at home gives Bahia a notable advantage considering fan support and familiarity with pitch conditions. The match timing and venue do not impose unusual challenges.
- Bahia, pushing for a top-table finish, have high motivation to secure three points. Santos, battling relegation threats, may play conservatively but need points to climb out of the drop zone.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Bahia: -162, Draw: 285, Santos: 435 | Bahia | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Bahia -0.75: -122, Santos +75: 102 | Bahia -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -105, Under 2.5: -115 | Over 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bahia 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 25% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bahia moneyline win
Predicted Score: 2-1