Match Analysis: Villarreal vs Girona – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-24
- Time: 5:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio de la Cerámica, Vila-Real, Spain
Game Overview
Villarreal enters the match as a clear favorite against Girona, reflecting their superior league position and recent positive form. Villarreal began the 2025/26 La Liga season strongly with a 2-0 away win, while Girona struggles as a mid-low table team.
Key Factors to Consider
- Villarreal shows consistent strength with a 61.9% win rate as favorite and solid squad additions this season. Girona has struggled as an underdog, winning only about 6.7% of such matches.
- Historically Villarreal has had better results against Girona and are significantly favored by bookmakers, indicating a probable trending advantage.
- Villarreal is missing key players like Logan Costa, Willy Kambwala, Denis Suárez, Gerard Moreno, Diego Conde, and Ayoze Pérez. Despite absences, their depth appears sufficient. Girona injury status is less detailed, implying fewer notable absences.
- The match venue favors Villarreal at home (Estadio de la Cerámica), and no negative external circumstances appear to impact either team notably.
- Villarreal aims to maintain upward momentum in the league with a good start, while Girona seeks to improve poor away form. Villarreal’s ambition and squad quality suggest higher motivation to secure all three points.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Villarreal: -192, Girona: 460, Draw: 360 | Villarreal | ★★★★☆ 74% |
Spread | Villarreal -1: -112, Girona +1: -108 | Villarreal -1 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.75: -118, Under 2.75: -102 | Under 2.75 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Villarreal -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.75 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Villarreal to win (moneyline), Villarreal -1 spread, Under 2.75 goals
Predicted Score: 2-0