Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-22
- Time: 10:41 PM UTC
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Game Overview
The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Colorado Rockies who have shown slight improvement post-All-Star break but continue to struggle overall. The Pirates are moderately better this season and have home advantage with pitching still a key factor.
Key Factors to Consider
- Since the All-Star break, the Rockies have improved from a 22-74 first half record to 15-16, a .484 winning percentage, but still far below average. Pirates also hold a 15-16 record post-break, slightly better than their poorer first half performance.
- The Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela has a poor historical record against the Pirates with 0-2 and a 17.76 ERA in previous matchups. The Pirates' starter Braxton Ashcraft has shown recent solid outings limiting runs.
- No major injuries reported that significantly affect starting pitchers or key lineup players for either team in the matchup.
- Rockies face travel fatigue from a recent cross-country trip right before the game while Pirates have home park advantage at PNC Park, known for being more pitcher-friendly.
- Pirates have motivation to build on home field to improve their overall season record. Rockies are struggling with road performance and tough scheduling which may diminish their competitive edge.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -190, away: 160 | Pirates | β β β β β 70% |
Spread | home: 104, away: -125, line: 1.5 | Pirates -1.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Over/under | over: -110, under: -110, line: 8.5 | Over 8.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Pittsburgh Pirates -0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pirates moneyline win, Pirates covering the -1.5 spread, and game total going Over 8.5 runs.
Predicted Score: Pirates 6 – Rockies 4