Match Analysis: San Diego State Aztecs vs Colorado State Rams – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-03
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California
Game Overview
The San Diego State Aztecs (3-1) host the Colorado State Rams (1-3) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. San Diego State is favored by approximately 5.5 to 6 points with a total game score line set near 40.5 points. The Aztecs have a strong defense allowing under 10 points per game while scoring around 24 points per game. Colorado State has struggled offensively, scoring about 15 points per game and allowing 23 defensively. Recent form favors San Diego State, who won their last game 6-3, while Colorado State lost 20-3 in their prior outing.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Diego State has a solid home record this season and a top-10 defense nationally (allowing 9.8 points per game). Colorado State has shown offensive struggles with only 15.3 points scored per game and a defense that concedes 23 points on average. San Diego State is also coming off a low-scoring defensive win compared to Colorado Stateโs recent loss where they were shut out in the second half.
- Recent historical encounters have favored San Diego State both home and away, particularly highlighted by the Aztecsโ consistent defensive dominance over Colorado State.
- No current major injuries reported for either team that significantly affect starting lineups or key positional players.
- The game is played at San Diegoโs Snapdragon Stadium giving the Aztecs home-field advantage. Weather conditions are expected to be favorable with no reported impacts.
- San Diego State aims to maintain a strong conference record and prove consistency following a narrow win. Colorado State is motivated to upset a higher-ranked opponent to boost morale after a poor 1-3 start.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego State: -240, Colorado State: 195 | San Diego State wins | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Spread | San Diego State: -5.5 (-122), Colorado State: +5.5 (100) | San Diego State covers -5.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 40.5 -112, Under: 40.5 -108 | Under 40.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs 118% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 40.5 25% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: San Diego State Aztecs at 118% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 60.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego State is predicted to win via both moneyline and spread due to superior defense, consistent performance, and home advantage. The total points are expected to stay under the 40.5 line given both teamsโ recent low-scoring games and defensive strength.
Predicted Score: San Diego State 23 – Colorado State 14