Match Analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs FC Zwolle - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-24
- Time: 10:15 AM UTC
- Location: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar, Netherlands
Game Overview
A Dutch Eredivisie league match between AZ Alkmaar, currently 5th in the standings, and FC Zwolle, who top the table. AZ have slightly better recent form at home but Zwolle have started the season strongly and lead the table with good defensive solidity.
Key Factors to Consider
- AZ Alkmaar have a moderate home record with mixed recent results (DDDLL), scoring 47 and conceding 33 goals this season, whereas FC Zwolle show a resilient away form with some draws and a win recently (LDWDD), topped by a solid defense conceding 44 in total.
- Previous H2H matches show tightly contested games. Last season they faced twice, with balanced results keeping the rivalry competitive. AZ plays at home, which historically slightly favors them.
- No major injuries reported for either side affecting key players, suggesting both teams can field near full-strength squads.
- No notable external disruptions such as weather or travel issues are reported. The match at AZ's home ground suggests a typical game environment.
- FC Zwolleβs position at the top of the table suggests high motivation to maintain ranking, while AZ Alkmaar will be keen to close the gap in the standings and assert home advantage.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -278, away: 660, draw: 440 | AZ Alkmaar | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | home_-1.5: -108, away_+1.5: -112 | AZ Alkmaar -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | over_3.25: 102, under_3.25: -122 | Over 3.25 goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3.25 39% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3.25 at 39% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AZ Alkmaar to win on the moneyline, covering the -1.5 spread, and the total goals to be over 3.25.
Predicted Score: 3-1
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