Match Analysis: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs Stanford Cardinal - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, Hawaii
Game Overview
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors host the Stanford Cardinal in the 2025 college football season opener. Hawaii enters as a modest favorite at home with a spread of -2.5 and moneyline -130. Both teams struggled last season, with Hawaii finishing 5-7 and Stanford 3-9. Offensive production has been low for both, with Hawaii averaging about 22 points per game and Stanford around 23. Defensive issues remain for both, particularly Stanford's susceptibility to giving up 33+ points. The over/under is set near 50.5 points, reflecting expectations of a moderately paced and competitive game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Hawaii improved slightly last season offensively and defensively compared to Stanford, with better home performance and a roughly balanced scoring defense. Stanford struggled more defensively, allowing over 33 points per game and finishing with only 3 wins last year. Hawaii's offense is led by QB Brayden Schager with decent passing yards and some rushing ability, while Stanford is integrating a new interim head coach, which may impact early-season cohesion.
- Recent direct matchups favor Hawaii slightly; however, recent sample sizes are limited, and Stanford has won some contests when both teams performed below expectations overall. Hawaii has not covered the spread in most games as favorite recently, suggesting caution on laying points.
- No notable injuries reported for key starters on either team before the game, allowing both teams close to full strength. This should allow both units to perform near their typical levels.
- Hawaii's home-field advantage in Honolulu and travel distance for Stanford are notable. Weather and time-zone differences may slightly favor Hawaii. Stanford has a new interim coach, which may influence game planning and execution.
- As the season opener, both teams are motivated to start strong. Hawaii seeks to establish early dominance at home and build momentum after a sub-.500 season. Stanford aims to prove resilience under new coaching staff. The slight line movement favoring Hawaii indicates public and bookie confidence on the home team.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -130, away: 110 | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | home: -108, away: -112 | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | over: -112, under: -108 | Under 50.5 points | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 50.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 50.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors to win on the moneyline, cover the -2.5 spread, and the game total to go under 50.5 points.
Predicted Score: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 24 - Stanford Cardinal 17
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